Best bets for Saturday night, including Oregon vs. Arizona and Texas A&M vs. Alabama

Week 6 of college football isn’t over yet, as our staff is eyeing three evening games for their best bets.

These games include last year’s Mountain West champions taking on the Air Force, Texas A&M vs. Alabama and a Pac-12 After Dark affair in Tucson.

Dive below to grab the top three bets for Saturday night’s slate.

Best Week 6 Evening College Football Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups our college football team is targeting from today’s roster. Click on the team logos for any of the matches below to jump to a specific bet covered in this article.

Air Force vs. Utah State

By Mike Ianniello

Last year’s Mountain West champions absolutely fell off a cliff this year.

The Aggies are just 1-4, with their only 11-point win at home against UConn. Utah State ranks 112th in the nation in hitting percentage on offense, 128th in explosiveness and 119th in finishing drives.

Things went from bad to worse for the Aggies as they lost quarterback Logan Bonner for the season.

Cooper Legas takes over and although he is much more mobile than Bonner, he completes only 54% of his passes this year with two touchdowns and three interceptions.

Last week against BYU, Legas had 20 rush attempts but only passed for 52 yards. The Air Force should have no problem slowing down a rushing quarterback coming out of their game against the Navy.

For an Aggies team that is 28th in the nation in rushing rate, it is only 114th in passing rate. They direct the ball, but not well.

Meanwhile, the Air Force ranks first in the nation in rush rate and is eighth in hit rate. The Falcons are third in the nation in yards per carry, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. It’s ridiculous for a team that runs it every game.

Fullback Brad Roberts is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and John Lee Eldridge III has rushed for 9.3 yards per attempt — he’s averaging nearly one first down on every carry.

When they pass the ball with Haaziq Daniels, it’s unexpected, so they lead the country in passing explosiveness. Daniels averages just seven attempts per game, but he’s amassed 10.7 yards per attempt.

This Utah State defense is giving up 4.7 yards per carry this year, which ranks it 113th in the nation. The Aggies also sit 110th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.

Things unravel quickly in Logan. The Aggies have dropped four straight games by at least 10 points, including a 28-point loss to FCS Weber State. I don’t think this team has given up yet, but for a team that’s already won, we’ll see how long they keep fighting the Air Force.

I’m going to lay down the -10 and play it at -12.5.

Take: Air Force -10.5 (Play to -12.5)

Texas A&M vs. Alabama

By Kody Malstrom

I wrote about it in the offseason, broke it again this week and now I take it as my best bet. Nick Saban’s revenge spot tale aside, the Aggies are simply outmatched in almost every way the game is played.

As if it couldn’t get any worse, quarterback Max Johnson broke a bone in his throwing hand and won’t play this week. That leaves substitute Haynes King stepping in and taking command of this porous offense.

Alabama will send home to generate pressure on the field and look to create havoc against one of the worst offenses in the country. The Aggies are vastly outmatched on the line, offering little to no protection with near low ranks in Line Yards and Pass Protection.

Offensively, the Crimson Tide will be able to run all over the Aggies, as Texas A&M ranks below 100 in Defensive Line Yards and Defensive Rush Success.

Even though Bryce Young can’t get dressed due to injury, the Tide will be more than comfortable letting backup quarterback Jalen Milroe hustle because he’s more of a threat on his feet than Young. .

Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan are set for a big ground game, especially if Saban gets a bit conservative to start with Milroe getting comfortable under center.

With the Aggies unable to defend the run, I’ll take Bama and score at -13.5 for the first half. Play it no higher than -14.

Take: Alabama -13.5 1H (Play at -14)

Oregon vs. Arizona

By Cody Gogin

Georgia’s opening-week chokehold seemed to define the national narrative for this Oregon team, but the Ducks have actually been outstanding ever since.

Since the UGA game, the Ducks are 4-0 and have exceeded expectations. Using Bill Connelly’s expected scores, the Ducks were expected to be 4-0 ATS in those four games, covering by an average margin of 14.95 ppg.

The markets have still not caught up with the quality of play of this team.

Oregon ranks fifth in offensive hit rate and fourth in quick hit rate. The Ducks also have the ninth-highest rated offense in the nation by SP+.

Arizona’s defense has struggled this year, ranking 125th in defensive pass rate. He’s struggling both ways, as the unit is 123rd against the pass and the run.

Overall, this is ranked as the 103rd best defense by SP+. Oregon should be able to have a great offensive day against this Arizona defense.

Oregon’s defense is a bit more worrisome. He ranks 126th in defensive pass rate and is dead last in the FBS at 131st in pass rate. SP+ gives the Ducks more credit than that, ranking them as the 45th best defense in the nation.

On the Ducks’ defense, they’ve faced three offenses that rank in the top 20 in pass completion rate this season.

Luckily for Oregon, Arizona doesn’t have a stellar offense. The Wildcats rank 76th in offensive success rate and 82nd in SP+. Although the Ducks’ defense has looked awful at times, I don’t believe this will be an offense that challenges them.

Oregon is much better than that number shows, and they should win easily on Saturday. The Ducks have outplayed nearly every opponent since facing Georgia in Week 1, and I expect them to keep that momentum going.

Take: Oregon -13 (Play to -13.5)

Comments are closed.