Odds, NFL Week 11 pick: Justin Fields shines in Atlanta homecoming, Patriots torment Zach Wilson again
It’s another week in the NFL and another week of our picks. Week 10 had everything you wanted in a slate. There were overtime thrillers, crazy one-pieces, and upheavals everywhere. While intoxicating to watch, the past week hasn’t been particularly kind to yours truly, going from 1-4 in my Locks of the Week. Perhaps the most devastating loss in this group was scoring six points with the Raiders for them to fall against Jeff Saturday and the Foals. We have won a big victory for the dolphins and were 0.500 with the rest of our picks, but we’ll be looking to increase those numbers as we look to week 11.
There are a number of things to watch from a betting perspective this weekend. Although not included in my five locks, it is worth pointing out that there is athis could impact Bills-Browns this weekend, as the Buffalo area is expected to receive one to two feet of snow. As for my locks, we’re going to grab a few division games and keep riding the Justin Fields hype train.
Locks of the week ATS: 23-24-3
All NFL odds through Caesars Sportsbook.
Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Bill Belichick just has Zach Wilson’s number. He’s 0-3 SU and ATS against the Patriots in his career, his teams are averaging just 12 points per game, and he boasts a passing rating of just 50.5.
In their Week 8 game, the New England defense managed to torment the Jets quarterback, forcing him to three interceptions en route to the 22-17 victory. All of those picks came as Wilson was under pressure, and you can expect a similar formula when he arrives at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. The Patriots are tied for the second-most sacks in the NFL at the start of Week 11, and their 37% rushing rate ranks fourth in the league. When under pressure this season, Wilson has a 6.6 passer rating, which is the worst in the NFL and on course to be the worst of any quarterback in the last five seasons.
Projected rating: Patriots 27, Jets 17
The choice : Patriots -3
Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
It’s important to note that this is a neutral site game, as the Niners and Cardinal will face off in Mexico City. It’s almost as important to add that Kyler Murray’s status is still not 100% certain as he is still nursing a hamstring injury. Still, I’m comfortable laying down the points to go with San Francisco. He was unable to cover last week in SU’s win over the Chargers, but continues to show flashes of high-powered offense. Christian McCaffrey’s trade has done wonders for Jimmy Garoppolo’s efficiency, as he has a passer rating of 126.3 when the fullback is on the pitch.
While that gives you confidence that San Francisco will be able to score points, I’m more supportive of the Niners on their defense. He’s giving up a league-low 280.1 yards per game, and his 18.1 points per game rank fourth. Much of that is down to Nick Bosa, who terrorized opposing quarterbacks with a league-leading 24 hits. That kind of pressure against Colt McCoy or a stoned Kyler Murray should keep this Arizona offense in check.
Projected score: 49ers 28, Cardinals 17
The choice : 49ers-8
Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles
You have to give credit to Jeff Saturday and the Colts. After one of the most bizarre situations we’ve seen in some time with his hiring, Saturday was able to lead his team to a road victory against the Raiders. However, I will still bet against this situation for now. Indy had an early jolt, but with that number now under a touchdown, I’m going to pounce. Yes, Philly is no longer undefeated and showed a few run-stopping warts, but they’re still a much better team.
The Eagles showed us they could get after the quarternack, ranking in the top five units, according to Pro Football Focus. That plays perfectly into our hands with this game against a Colts offensive line that continues to struggle on protection, ranking 29th in pass blocking, per PFF.
We also have a little tale of revenge for Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni, who was the Colts’ offensive coordinator from 2018-2020. This will be his first game against his former club, which adds some juice to the game.
Projected rating: Eagles 27, Foals 20
The choice : Eagles -6.5
Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears
Justin Fields has been the most dynamic quarterback in the NFL in recent weeks. Something clicked with the Bears signalman, and he dominated with the combination of quick passing and elite rushing ability. Part of that success is the coaching staff who build their playing appeal around their skills. Since Week 7, Fields has seen 31 racing games designed. In the previous six games, he’s only seen 12 of those games.
Meanwhile, they head to Atlanta to take on a Falcons team that seems to be headed in the wrong direction. After starting 6-0 ATS, the Falcons have failed to cover in four straight games. Marcus Mariota has struggled in recent games, and he had several questionable shots in their loss to Carolina last week. So you’re telling me I can support the team with a better quarterback and get a field goal? Yes please. It’s also good to know that Arthur Smith is a home favorite with a 1-4 ATS record since last season.
One more thing to note: Fields is from Georgia, and the Falcons passed him on when they owned the No. 4 overall pick in 2020, opting to draft Kyle Pitts instead. With that in mind, he could come into this match with a little extra motivation to prove his home side wrong.
Projected rating: Bears 24, Falcons 21
The choice : Bear +3
Featured Game | New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions
Similar to last week, this looks like a game where Saquon Barkley can really dominate. The Lions are giving up 160.9 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks them 31st in the NFL. However, Detroit’s defense isn’t just slippery on the run; it’s just bad. He is last in points per game (29.3), yards per game (416.2), yards per play (6.5) and third down percentage (51%). Detroit was only able to win last week thanks to a bad pitch from Justin Fields that was returned for a touchdown. Daniel Jones won’t make those kinds of mistakes to open the door for the Lions, as he has the NFL’s fourth-lowest turnover rate this season.
Projected rating: Giants 30, Lions 21
The choice : Giants -3
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Rest of the peloton
Raiders at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 23, Raiders 20
The choice : Broncos-2.5
Chiefs at Chargers
Projected rating: 30 leaders, 23 chargers
The choice : Heads -6.5