Odds, NFL Week 18 pick: Chiefs and Patriots take on Division opponents in regular season finals
Not too great a week for #DajaniDimes. We went 10-6 overall ATS but struggled with the first five locks. The New York Jets stayed close to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, we had a bad shot on the Houston Texans, the Dallas Cowboys disappointed again, and then the Cleveland Browns lost all motivation after being knocked out of the playoffs. I wonder what the future holds for Baker Mayfield.
The final week of the regular season is generally odd with some teams off duty, but if you look at the playoff photo, pretty much every team, minus the Green Bay Packers, has something to play for. Let’s move on to the final week of the regular season picks. Thanks to the CBS Sports research team for providing the information found in this column. Check out the season stats below.
Top five picks record: 43-42
Overall ATS record: 124-131-1
Single record: 161-94-1
2020 ATS Record: 125-120-9 (2 official choices missed due to COVID postponement)
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN / ABC)
Kansas City Chiefs -11
The Chiefs have something to play for, as a win and loss for the Tennessee Titans would give Kansas City the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes and Co. will be very motivated after losing to the Cincinnati Bengals last week, which is unfortunate for the Broncos. They lost 13 points to Kansas City earlier this year and have lost three in a row. Teddy Bridgewater has been placed on the injured list, so it will again be Drew Lock – who suffers from a shoulder injury. Denver lost 21 points to the Los Angeles Chargers last week and is probably looking forward to the offseason.
The choice : Heads -10
Projected Note: Chefs 30-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Washington Football Team -7
The Giants are what I like to describe as “bad bottom”. I believe the last time they covered the spread was November 28th. Since Daniel Jones left the starting lineup, New York is 0-5 and has lost the double-digit five. I made the Giants’ fade out a best bet four of the last five weeks and I’m starting over to end the year.
Jake Fromm is likely to make his second start after Mike Glennon injured his wrist, but as we saw against the Philadelphia Eagles a few weeks ago, he’s not outscored. Other than the Giants lacking a quarterback, it looks like head coach Joe Judge has lost the locker room. After his bizarre post-game rant last week, the players admitted they had no interest in listening to what he had to say.
Washington isn’t a contender either, but these players will always fight for Ron Rivera. It won’t take much to beat the Giants. New York has the worst scoring offense in the NFL in the past two seasons (16.6 points per game). The Giants have won two double-digit games while losing 14 double-digit games with Judge as the head coach. He won one more game than Pat Shurmur, who was fired after going 9-23 in his two seasons as New York head coach.
The choice : Washington -7
Projected Note: Washington 23-10
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
New England Patriots -6
The Dolphins were knocked out of the playoffs last week and have nothing more to play. We saw how it affected the Browns on Monday night. The Patriots have a shot at winning the AFC East, although I don’t believe they will as the Buffalo Bills face the Jets 4-12 with the division still pending. New England are coming off a 40-point victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars and are expected to beat Miami by at least one touchdown. At least.
The choice : Patriots -6.5
Projected Note: Patriots 24-13
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
New Orleans Saints -3.5
The Saints find themselves in one of the most intriguing playoff situations. They can clinch a berth with a win and loss for the San Francisco 49ers to the Los Angeles Rams. The Saints have won the last three meetings in Atlanta. The Falcons aren’t playing for anything except pride at this point, and each of their last five losses has been in double digits.
New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the NFL. While the Saints’ offense is near the bottom of the league, I have confidence that this unit will be strengthened enough to secure a victory. Taysom Hill did not give up games to less important teams. He beat the Jets by 21 points and the Carolina Panthers by eight points last week.
The choice : Saints -4.5
Projected Note: Saints 26-20
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Arizona Cardinals -6.5
I was caught sleeping on the Cardinals last week. They were leading a three-game losing streak against a popular Cowboys team, but Arizona dominated them straight away. Maybe Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray exorcised some demons last week, and they can refocus for the playoffs. The Cards can bounce back to win NFC West with a win and a loss for the Rams.
The Cardinals have scored 30 points eight times this season. He’s one of the timidest in the NFL, and I think they can hit nine this Sunday. Sure, the Seahawks knocked out Tim Boyle and the Detroit Lions last week, but they still allowed 29 points on an 18-point offense per game! Remember when Colt McCoy beat this double-digit team on the road earlier this season?
The choice : Cardinals -6.5
Projected Note: Cardinals 31-24
Other choices of week 18
Cowboys (-5.5) 28-20 vs. Eagles
Invoices 27-13 on Jets (+16)
Vikings (-5.5) 24-17 against the bears
Titans (-10) 31-20 vs. Texans
Colts (-15.5) 30-10 v Jaguars
Steelers (+6) 23-21 vs. Ravens
Browns (-6) 20-13 over the Bengals
Buccaneers (-8) 28-16 v Panthers
Packers 23-20 on Lions (+4)
Aries 26-23 out of 49ers (+4.5)
Chargers (-3) 27-21 v Raiders