Predictions and odds for each match of week 5 – The Athletic


Austin Mock’s projection model is derived from play-by-play data, adjusted for opponent, home / away, rest, and then produces a points projection for (xPF) and points against (xPA) for each team at FBS level. From there, the model then produces a projected spread and total based on all of the model’s inputs for each game. Over the past two seasons, this model has outperformed the sports betting market. For more on the model, see Austin’s introductory article on his model.

In week 4, the model’s bets did as Notre Dame did and ended with a profitable week after doing like Alabama the week before with a huge week. We were much closer to having a huge week as Indiana / Western Kentucky lost by half a point with a late score and the same happened in Missouri / Boston College under. Again, you can’t complain too much when you’re still profitable, but it stings when you’re a few bounces away from straight weeks of big wins.

The small profitable weeks don’t seem so important and are not that fun, but if you can make a profit every week while mixing up some big weeks, you will end up with a lot of money at the end of the year. The model seems to be staying hot this week as he will be making his highest number of bets in a single week so far this season. Let’s make money.

Last week record: 5-4 (+0.6 units)

Season record: 18-14-1 (+2.7 uts, 7.

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