Vegas Pick’em: NFL Week 4 Winners Against Spread
The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s most supported team since Patrick Mahomes took over as quarterback four seasons ago – largely for good reason.
The back-to-back AFC champions had been the most profitable team to bet on in the previous three seasons, which helped create a dedicated following in the betting public. But the popularity is turning against us now.
Kansas City is one of four teams ranked 0-3 ATS at the start of the 2021-22 season – alongside the humble New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Football Team – after back-to-back and heartbreaking losses in the last two weeks. The Chiefs failed to cover by an average of six points per game.
Their fall from the top of the betting market was as precipitous as it was unexpected. No one expected Kansas City not to win the AFC West this year, but now sitting in last place, Circa Sports’ odds mean they’re more likely to not win the division.
Kansas City is available at +109 ($ 1 risk to win $ 1.09) to win the AFC West with the “no” prize at -139 ($ 1.39 risk to win $ 1) – which implies less than 46% chance they will win after adjusting for the house keeping percentage.
Kansas City hurt Discussion points’ also save. Although I upset Baltimore in Week 2, the Chiefs failed to cover the column in last week’s 30-24 loss to the Chargers and a 33-29 victory in the week 1 against the Browns.
The season total record for each ATS game now stands at 25-23 after going 8-8 a week ago, although 6-2 on games.
Read below for picks from each match in Week 3, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. The lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
Seattle Seahawks +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers Let’s hesitate a bit before pressing the panic button on Seattle. The Seahawks have edged the Vikings and Titans 1.5 meters per game despite losses in the past two weeks. This is a huge low point against a 49ers team with growing injuries.
Denver Broncos pick them against Baltimore Ravens Historically, eliminating bad teams is a better indicator of future success than winning close matches against good teams. So, no, the Broncos’ weak schedule isn’t a major concern considering what they’ve done by winning every double-digit game. Empower Field at Mile High also has one of the best field advantages in the league.
Dallas Cowboys -4.5 vs. Carolina Panthers There has been so much negative talk about the strength of the Broncos ‘schedule, and yet so little about an equally noticeable red flag on the Panthers’ slate. The anointing of a Panthers defense who faced two rookie quarterbacks (Zach Wilson of the Jets and Davis Mills of the Texans) and a Saints team averaging 4.3 yards per game seems a little premature. The Cowboys’ offensive explosiveness should provide a rude awakening.
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 to Los Angeles Chargers The Chargers outscored their actual efficiency numbers with a pair of virtual draw wins. It seems odd to say given recent reputations, but the Raiders probably have the best defense the Chargers have encountered so far to make the half-point hook inevitable.
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Money has been pouring into Cleveland since Monday morning to give me a break, but I had these teams even early in the season and Minnesota have been equally impressive against a tighter schedule. The Vikings and Browns are virtually tied across three games by the EPA (expected points added) per game.
Bend over (7-8)
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 vs. Washington Football Team Washington has been more effective in three games, but the previous ones coming into the season should still carry a lot of weight in Week 4 and Atlanta screened as the most talented team. It may only take a few weeks for head coach Arthur Smith to settle in. I am being cautious here as this is another example of the market moving against me.
Detroit Lions +3 vs. Chicago Bears That number would have to drop back to 3.5 to be a game, and that won’t happen with a reverse trend. However, Detroit has clearly played better than Chicago at the start of the season. The Bears’ problems seemed to take more than a week to resolve in last week’s 26-6 loss to the Browns, where they gained 47 total yards.
Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs It’s less of a sale on the Chiefs, which should still be good in the long run, than a buy on the Eagles. Philadelphia’s underlying numbers – including 1.8 yards net per game – are better than their 1-2 record suggests and much better than the impression left by the 41-21 loss to Dallas on Monday Night. Soccer.
Arizona Cardinals +5 at Los Angeles Rams My biggest bet from the start of the week is that I didn’t jump to Arizona +6. The Cardinals may still be worth a smaller bet at this price, however, as they have been more effective than the Rams in attack and defense on a per game basis.
New England Patriots +7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The buccaneer tax remains in effect because it is difficult to justify that this number is statistically higher than 6. Tampa Bay would be winless against its constantly inflated gaps if it had not been for two interception returns late in the game. in a 48-25 win over the Falcons.
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 to Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati haven’t scored as many points since 2017, two years before current coach Zac Taylor took the helm. And that’s because the Bengals don’t have to make that many points to anyone. They get too much credit for a lucky win over the Vikings and suffocating a badly injured Steelers team.
Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers A number of the Steelers’ top players – including, but not limited to TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith and JuJu Smith-Schuster – are listed as questionable for this game. It’s hard to justify a play on Pittsburgh unless several of them are confirmed playing, and even then nothing less than +7 should be considered against a Green Bay team reaching their pace of cruise.
New York Jets +7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans There are still some 7.5 lying around town which might be worth taking. Tennessee -7 is the right price because he should win, but has such a poor pass defense that even struggling New York rookie quarterback Zach Wilson should be able to find success.
Miami Dolphins -1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts It could be the most balanced game of the week with both teams at around -1.5 net yards per game. But Miami generally has a bigger edge on the court this time of year with the heavy, and in the case of Sunday, potentially wet weather that should make it at least -2.5 on the points spread.
Buffalo Bills -15.5 vs Houston Texans I’ve lost too many games to the Bills in this column over the past few years. Buffalo could be the best-trained team in the league, a benefit that neither I nor the market has fully considered in the past. Anytime there’s a tight coin flip like this in the future, I’m backing Buffalo.
New York Giants +8 to New Orleans Saints New Orleans only deserves a favor if the Caesars Superdome is one of the league’s biggest on-field advantages. He hasn’t had such a big advantage in recent seasons, but I’m not ready to cancel him in this situation. I’m not prepared to pay a premium either.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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